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Regarding your prediction that CEO's will prematurely overreact, I see this happening already. Much of the "Performance based RIF" seems like the companies want to experiment with infusing more AI in their development and other operations, and if they realize that more humans are necessary, they will rehire in the future. But right now, with AI adoption they see some redundancies developing.

Another interpretation of MZ's "Senior-level Engineers being in demand" could mean that the ageism in the industry will be somewhat subdued...who knows? This contrasts what he said years back that he prefers to hire young because "they are just smarter."

Thirdly, with your observation that business acumen will be as important as coding skill to succeed, may be the traditional Comp Sci degree will morph into a Business + Comp Sci degree.

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"I was floored when Andrew Ng came out with this post earlier today." - you've been Vinned. <3

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